Should Scotland be an independent country?
This was the question that 5 million Scots were asked on a Thursday precisely ten years ago, during the first Scottish independence referendum. A question that remains an integral part of the political debate to this day.
A staggering turnout of 84.59% of voters cast a ballot on that occasion. Concerns over Scotland’s uncertain future in the EU, coupled with promises of new devolved powers from unionists that have only partially materialized (in fact, devolution has been undermined since the UK’s exit from the EU), led Scots to vote against independence by a clear margin. “Yes” won in Glasgow and Dundee, but didn’t convince the capital Edinburgh.
Ten years later, is the desire for an independent Scotland in Europe truly dead? Most pundits have indeed come to this conclusion after the recent general election. However, dismissing a long-standing movement based on the result of a single election is certainly a gross oversimplification. Future elections will show whether independence has indeed become a lower priority for many Scots, or if this particular election was an anomaly driven by a desire to see the Tories defeated by Labour, as well as a wish to express dissatisfaction with the SNP.
The end of 14 years of Tory rule in the UK has undoubtedly prompted relief across Europe. Still, Labour’s landslide victory obscured a very significant fact. Despite the Tories’ freefall, Keir Starmer failed to increase Labour’s vote share compared to the general elections under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership. The fact that Labour’s historic defeat in 2019 actually came with more Labour votes than its landslide victory in 2024 is clear evidence of the democratic deficiency of the UK’s electoral system. Its First Past the Post principle is really just a two-horse race that systematically fails to represent the actual spectrum of voter preferences.
Indeed, the recent general election might be the most dysfunctional one in UK history yet. We will not go into detail in this newsletter (for a deeper analysis, click here). What we will do is reiterate our conviction that the debate over Scotland’s desire to rejoin the EU as an independent country has not abated. In fact, the general polling trend on the issue has largely remained unchanged. This is in line with the fact that the national question of the UK as whole is still far from resolved, as was sadly illustrated by the recent riots in cities across England (for more on this, we highly recommend this insightful article by Anthony Barnett).
In fact, while it may seem that the UK has finally turned the page from its disastrous Tory chapter, there are more lines of continuity between the current government and the previous one than one might care to admit. For instance, while Keir Starmer has often criticized the Tory government’s stance on immigration, his policies may not differ too much from those of Rishi Sunak—indeed, Starmer seems to be drawing lessons from the Italian far-right government on this topic. As for Brexit, while Starmer is admittedly seeking closer relations with Europe, he has made it clear that there will be no softening, let alone going back on, Brexit. Not to mention that, despite promises made by Labour since 2022, there is no concrete indication on Starmer’s part of wanting to fix the UK’s broken electoral system.
It is becoming increasingly evident that the UK’s most significant democratic issues remain unresolved, and with the upcoming US election and evolving EU dynamics, Scotland’s future remains as open as ever.
We’re organizing an exciting event to dive deep into these developments and explore what lies ahead. Stay tuned for more updates and details. Until then, let’s continue to stay optimistic and confident that, though Scotland’s next chapter hasn’t begun, all those who are remembering that day ten years ago have already started writing it.