This past week delivered a stunning political twist across the English-speaking world. In both Canada and Australia, anti-Trump forces pulled off unexpected victories—while in England, Trump ally Nigel Farage made such a dramatic surge in local elections that his once-outlandish claim to become the next UK Prime Minister suddenly sounds alarmingly possible.
When Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation in January, most expected the country to swing toward Trump-style populism. Instead, voters turned sharply the other way. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre not only lost the general election—he couldn’t even hold onto his own seat. In contrast, Mark Carney, Trudeau’s successor, swept to power with 44% of the vote and a commanding majority in Parliament.
Just days later, Australia echoed that message. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and his Labor Party defied the odds to win a second term with a comfortable majority, taking 35% of the vote. Trump enthusiast Peter Dutton, long tipped to win, suffered a humiliating defeat—including losing his own seat, just like Poilievre.
In both countries, progressive incumbents who were expected to falter triumphed instead—precisely because they confronted Trump-style extremism head-on and offered voters a hopeful, credible alternative. Their victories are proof: when leaders show backbone against far-right populism, voters reward them with trust—and votes.
Now contrast that with the UK, where Labour leader Keir Starmer’s government suffered a bruising defeat in Thursday’s local elections. Labour lost hundreds of councillors, a key by-election, and posted such a lacklustre vote share that the BBC estimates it to be barely more than half of the party’s already fragile result in the General Election of July 2024.
From our perspective, this startling difference has a very clear cause. In Canada and Australia, Trump’s terrible policies were effectively used to paint a dark picture of his populist counterparts, whose promise to emulate Trump suddenly lost all its appeal.
In the UK, however, Keir Starmer’s government has not only failed to challenge Trumpism—it has mirrored it. Whether parroting anti-immigration rhetoric or indulging in performative Anglo-British nationalism, Labour has too often followed the path blazed by Trump ally Farage rather than opposing it.
The reluctance to criticise Trump may stem from a dangerous delusion—that the UK can somehow remain untouched by the fallout of his politics. But the failure to confront Trumpism at home is worse. It is a moral abdication.
Worse still is Starmer’s silence on Brexit. For five years, the UK has suffered deeply from its consequences—yet Starmer continues to reduce the issue to soundbites. His stubborn slogan, “make Brexit work,” without a candid reckoning of its costs, is not a plan—it’s a recipe for public mistrust. Combined with an economic agenda that hits the most vulnerable, it explains the government’s plunging popularity.
Let us be clear: the threat of Nigel Farage becoming the next UK Prime Minister is not a distant possibility. It is a real and rising danger.
Many in Scotland will be watching this with growing unease, as yet another political threat coming from Westminster. Across Europe, we hear you. We see the political bind Scotland faces, and we are ready to stand with you.
If Scotland chooses an independent European future, you won’t be alone. We will offer support and solidarity every step of the way.
We’ll explore this future together at our special Europe Day event, “Scotland in the EU: Good for Scotland, Good for Europe,” next Friday, 9 May, at Augustine United Reform Church in Edinburgh, from 6:30pm. We hope to see you there.
It will be a unique opportunity to share findings from our recent Brussels delegation, discuss together the next steps for the campaign, and celebrate Scotland’s European connections. If you haven’t yet, book your free ticket or join us via livestream.
In European solidarity
EfS team